As a result, the events and problems related to the loss of Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 have created a series of frightening and sinister concerns for international travel, mobility, safety and risk managers. Many do not yet understand the full implications that this event will have in the world. The problems range from technological deficiencies, crisis management, sources of capable threats, news reports to management and aviation security. We also examine some new problems that will also affect the future of travelers and managers alike. For those in charge of preparing and managing affected people and assets, this will help them in their analysis and future planning.
Many more people are now analyzing all the associated problems, some for the first time. What the world now knows about a series of related issues that they once took for granted or that simply had no interest, are now greatly concerned. Justly!
Technological deficiencies: Vs Smartphones aircraft
If airplanes were cars, most people would not buy them. An alarming number of aircraft is 10, 20, 30 years or older and are still in service on commercial and domestic routes. The technology available on most airplanes is much more outdated than last year's smartphone technology, including emergency communications and monitoring systems. Not to mention the lack of international integration for those who have better and more capable technological solutions.
There is a common misperception that aviation technology is evolving at a similar pace to commercial technology as seen in computers, phones, cars, etc. When, in fact, this is not the case at all. It is not only the airplane with date, but also support systems such as radar, communications, reports and access to databases. While everything is supposed to work well, when there are no incidents or scandals, it is often not a matter of discussion or concern until one or more incidents occur and many more realize what industry connoisseurs have been up to. both and pressing. change for a while
Coincidence and causality: delay indicators are not future guarantees
2012 and 2013 were celebrated as two of the safest years in the history of aviation. The problem with this fact is that the final result is not qualified or specified as the result of deliberate actions that created the result or if it was only a series of random coincidences that peaked during these times. There are more airlines, more flights, more destinations, more pilots and more travelers every year, which means a significant load for all the associated elements in different ways, at different times with very different consequences. The reality is that, despite the incidents and data recorded, risk management, health and aviation security is not 100% controlled and the incidents and events will happen and happen, with often catastrophic results.
Airspace management: global access and 100% monitored?
The average layman has the impression that there are super computers that track every air movement worldwide and all are centrally accessible, verifiable and accurate at any time. They saw it on their iPhone application or desktop computer through a website, so it must also be the same for the control of commercial and military air traffic, right?
A growing number of reports and observations have revealed that takeoff and landing are really the only interactive and closely monitored stages of national and international air movements. Some locations still have bulletin boards to alert pilots and providers of airspace changes on certain days or locations, and civil and military systems do not interact or focus or see the same data. What happens and what is monitored in the hours between takeoff and landing is not as consistent nor universal throughout the world.
We had noted and commented on an earlier article on the interoperability of Australia's airspace shortly before official news coverage as well.
The fact is that people or an incident were able to make a large modern plane with more than 200 souls on board disappear without a trace while the entire world watched, despite all the current technology and monitoring available to civilian agencies and military
Who is watching ?: NSA and other global supervisory perceptions
Many have been agitated and horrified by Snowden's revelations about civil and social monitoring programs. Therefore, everyone believes that everything is controlled at all times and acts on it. This is neither true nor realistic. If that is true, all the storms would be reported to those affected before they hit, the victims of murder warned of the imminent threat and all accidents, such as air accidents, would be captured, informed and responded before the plane actually will crash.
Despite what most people and even informed professionals believed, many presumably important activities, such as aviation movements, are not controlled in real time, at all times and are reported or acted upon in the case of the slightest variation. Even finding data or related information after the fact can be difficult or impossible. Not to mention that even if there were data on certain events, the data, the source and the means of collection would never be made public for the protection of secrets.
Despite the applications and desktop / online portals to get access to airline schedules, track flights, aviation statistics and even radio transmissions in flight, the volume of data, channels and activity in a single minute of Any day, 24/7 is an amazing number and long, long before there is anything close to achieving real-time, universal monitoring and access to such activities. The bad guys know it too.
Warning signs: related, studied, tested or coincident?
In the first couple of months of 2014 there were already a couple of key events, related to aviation safety and security that are related to Malaysia Airlines MH370.
Ethiopian Airlines Flight 702 It was significant not because it involved the alleged hijacking of a plane that was heading to the EU and an important capital city, but because the story was not revealed by professional or government agencies and involved one of the crew as the alleged hijacker. Online enthusiasts, range fans and other crowdsourcing intelligence were responsible for identifying, reporting and monitoring the incident that in turn fed the international news community. If it weren't for this accident and the trained online community joined in that particular moment and saw the incident until the conclusion, it would have only been a line of news updates online or during the evening news. Crew members deprived of their rights also took many purchase surprises as a potential source for improper use of a plane.
Recently, Etihad Flight EY 461 had a worrying chain of events that was not controlled and lacked adequate controls and supervision of risks, placing commercial interests above the most practical risk management principles for both suppliers and travelers. We noticed several oversights and improvements in an article we wrote on the subject recently.
Crisis management: planned and learned skill, which is not part of your promotional right
Governments, national carriers, military leaders and many more have presented themselves collectively and publicly as a result of Malaysia Airlines flight MH370, and many of them show an alarming level of lack of preparation, lack of coordination and cultural restrictions that They have not worked well with the international news and affected audience.
Catastrophic failures, accidents and random events are not always attributed to those left to communicate and coordinate the response, but when their actions are inadequate, inconsistent, suspicious, uncoordinated or simply random, everyone begins to question their participation in the tragedy and they become less and less complacent and increasingly hostile towards those whose job titles demand that they act on behalf of the victims and the best interests of everyone involved. It has become painfully obvious to the world's viewers and those tragically affected by the event that most did not prepare for such an event nor is it effective to involve, communicate and coordinate an event that was not scheduled in advance.
Global news and reports: random and misleading
The quality, precision and every changing focus of the news and the interest of the media throughout the event has been incredible, to say the least. Not because of the lack of details, but because of the frantic random change in approach, theory and data used to create and publish stories. A perfect example has been a story titled & # 39; Malaysia Airlines Fligth 370: Tracks in the range " that is not accurate or related to the event effectively. A random selection of runways, in unverified conditions, never had a large commercial aircraft landing on it, it has no instrument approach capability, at night, no control tower or emergency ground support resources does not qualify as an option for an aircraft in duress at the time and circumstances of the Malaysia Airlines flight MH370. This has been representative of the hourly conspiracy theories and random issues launched by an industry that they themselves have seen diminishing in scope and capacity in recent years, part of the reason why the aforementioned fan group provides critical information for World news services during the Ethiopian Airlines suspect kidnapping.
Airport security: hated and hated by many
Despite the continued loss of interest, tolerance and financing for airport security since the catalyst on September 11, it has seen a resurgence as a result of the incident. Most airport security is ineffective against intelligent, coordinated and capable threat groups, with more focus and application to random individual acts and highly reactive to yesterday's threat: which is part of the reason why it frustrates so many There is also little international coherence between the application and implementation of aviation security, which in turn encourages the search and exploitation of vulnerable and accessible channels by more capable international threat groups.
Retrospective admissions and revelations that this flight had so many airport security anomalies will generate changes, innovation and frustration for travelers as a result.
Passports: a growing illegal market and utility
In the same way, technology has been a very slow improvement in the space of commercial aviation, as have passports and passport control. Paper books used for international travel in a world where monetary and monetary interactions, along with electronic identification and verification take place in a matter of seconds, seem almost ridiculous, but it is a reality for a while, since not all Countries and users have the resources or technology. for anything more advanced. This means that they can also be used fraudulently.
International agencies such as Interpol have tried for many years to raise awareness about the gaps and threats posed by stolen passports in particular. Together with the increasing attempts to collect valid passports by illegal and false means, it results in a significant number of international travelers or opportunities to move among the population of commercial travelers. The possibility of detection is also reduced when detection measures are not met or there are regular and routine failures in the verification systems. Those who use or exploit these vulnerabilities range from frightened escapes to mortals along the way.
Successful plans and ideas: a catalyst for next-generation threats
A better prize always attracts a better prepared and better quality competitor. So does the world of criminal, violent or terrorist threats. Training and tactics have always been shared by these individuals and groups thanks to cultural ties, technology and even the institutions where you end up with a concentration of like-minded collaborators. But when one or more of these groups are successful and their planning and tactics are made public, a large number of capable and prospective threats are free to pursue similar plans. We have seen this in the last decade, since the 9/11 terrorist attacks, Pakistan, Mumbai and Algeria that have taken place with each group learning and improving in the last.
Direct impact and probable results of Malaysia Airlines flight MH370
Aviation technology will face renewed pressure for modernization and upgrades. This will be an economic burden for an industry already under pressure and, as a result, it is likely to expel some suppliers or services from selected markets. Governments will also be pressured to regulate and spend in this area, but inconsistent international results will not close the gap or solve the problem in the next decade. This gap will remain a key vulnerability for competent and persistent threat groups.
Aviation regulations and risk metrics will be reviewed in light of the complete disappearance of an airplane and the inability of the world to locate it in a timely manner. Some standards will be too burdensome for some suppliers or markets, which will further increase the gap between developed and emerging economies. No evidence of defect will no longer be considered as evidence of any defect by regulators and consumers. Buyers and consumers will change their spending habits by what they see or feel as better indicators of safety and risk management.
Changes in airspace management are needed. Aging infrastructure, public / private expenses will be required, but without means of recovering direct costs for the majority. Incidents, whether deliberate or accidental, will continue to occur as with flight MH370 until an effective change is implemented in this space. Transparency and admissions are likely to precede a real change with the traditional practices in question.
Monitoring and self-help awareness have already begun. Buyers and consumers are now more suspicious and actively seeking ways in which they can monitor or help themselves in case of routine or emergency failures. There is little collective trust or faith in the industry, evident in the individual applications and online portals that are already being used or referred to as a means of transparency for the consumer due to perceived or government deficiencies or reluctance to share. An artisanal industry will accelerate to attract consumers and provide access to "behind the scenes." data and information
New trends and tactics for future threat groups will include one or more areas of exploitation now publicly disclosed in the Malaysian MH370 flight incident. Inspiration and focus will lead to coordinated, international and high-level state / non-state actors, who will now consider this as a viable option for their cause or campaigns.
Failures in crisis management will result in a lack of institutional faith in governance, regulatory agencies and the national operator of Malaysia. Although individual failures will result in termination or replacement, the damage and setbacks of the company will have a significant economic impact and confidence in all partners or responsible for mismanagement and response to the event. Malaysian citizens will be influenced in the elections and the support of public officials who have demonstrated a long-term partnership with a system that allowed the processes to fail and progress.
The capture of news and reports will be less credible and will become an unverified secondary source in related incidents. Social journalism and the collection or verification of data by qualified communities and specialists will be promoted and used through conventional media channels. The short and updateable content in various ways will serve to inform and educate the laity about technical and related issues during high priority events or emergency communication.
Airport security will undergo a renewed restructuring and approach. The creation of social profiles will be justified again and more exploratory background details will be sought for travelers, such as the profession and affiliations. The air crew will also be subject to greater control and verification. Both incoming and outgoing flights will be subject to a greater selection of routes to selected destinations such as the US. UU. Safety measures will be introduced during the flight and passenger comfort will be reduced due to improved measures. There will be a significant disparity between the standards and will vary from one airline, location and cultural center to another.
Passports and verifiable databases will be addressed. Limited measures will be taken to update current identification formats, with the perspective of a secondary identification document required by some locations or jurisdictions in addition to the boarding pass, passport, visa application and other documentation requirements already ineffective for criminals and threats capable and with resources. Groups The cost increase will be transferred to suppliers with longer delays for travelers as the systems attempt to communicate with each other and access the data through secure, timely and constantly changing systems and failures.
New threats, concerns and controls will arise once all the specific details of the Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 arise and are investigated. Immediate and reactive measures will abound and family and community groups will unify to put pressure on those who consider themselves or identify themselves as responsible. While public interest and support may diminish, sustained campaigns will emerge online that will update the general public, news agencies and stakeholders. Tactics, lessons learned and new or improved solutions for those aspects that did not work completely will be refined and practiced by threat groups. A new generation of experts in aviation, terrorism and related security will be in charge and will contribute to the comment of the incident and the renewed search to prevent or capture those individuals and groups selected capable or with the intention of repeating the fear and tragedy associated with the Malaysia Airlines flight MH370.
As a result, the events and problems related to the loss of Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 have created a series of frightening and sinister concerns for international travel, mobility, safety and risk managers. It is understandable now how and where this incident will influence or change the aviation and travel industry. The problems range from technological deficiencies, crisis management, sources of capable threats, news reports to management and aviation security. These problems will also affect the future of travelers and managers alike. For those in charge of preparing and managing the people and assets affected, they have a more complete overview for future analysis and planning.